I am surprised at how a lot of people like to fool themselves.
It seems to afflict the male of the species more than the female.
1 in 8 men delude themselves and think they could take a point off Serena Williams.
It’s a mental trait that pervades lobbying. A surprisingly large number of people claim to have the silver bullet to walk away from a situation, block a proposal or win a vote.
At my old age, I have a crude rule of thumb to discover those who are bullshitting or those who know what they are doing.
I ask ” Great idea, (swap liberally with plan, strategy, or tactic) can you let me know when it worked”.
If they can give you one example, you are fortunate, and you now have the time to milk the wisdom and solution.
If they can’t give you a specific example, look at you with mock horror, it is just best to stop the conversation cold. If you can, just walk away.
If they insist, and utter something along the lines “we need to fight on the principle’, realise they are sending you on a suicide mission that won’t succeed, will get you killed, and it’s a suicide mission they have no intention of joining you on.
Ray Dalio speaks of these types of guys.
Instead, look to those who have a track record of success, work with them, or just copy them.