Every day in Brussels, political decisions go against some people.
Votes against groups and laws are adopted that go against someone’s interests.
Over 25 years I’ve identified some common reasons why people don’t get the laws they want.
Here are some of them.
- You are stepping in late into the process. This is the most common. If you only step in after the Commission puts the proposal out the door and the Commission’s proposal is against you, you have a steep curve to climb.
- You are not trusted. A close second to the first. If you are not trusted,
- You don’t have any viable solution to the public policy problem.
- You don’t have trusted evidence.
- You are not known and have no existing relationships with MEPs (cross-party) and Member Stateso
- This is your first rodeo.
- Your political allies in the Council and EP are outside the mainstream.
When you face these challenges, I end up giving the following advice. It is a simple form of political triage.
When you need Political Triage
First, I think there is a simple and accurate way to see if you can win – do you have enough votes? If 23 Member States and 470 MEPs are against you, you lose. It is an accurate measure that you should not ignore. Just because you have Poland and Hungary, plus the ECR and ID, supporting you does not mean you are on the winning side. It means you lose.
If you don’t have the votes, and the other side does, you will likely lose unless you can get one of the following. I see them as forms of political triage. Often, late in the day, interventions are needed when your clients have lost the political case (shown by not having the votes) to keep your client (either NGO or industry) going.
The major challenge is your client may not realise the state they are. You need to be straightforward and tell them that a blocking minority of 2 Member States or one political group won’t deliver political salvation. Even if your client’s cause is righteous, they may lose.
I’ll start on the right-hand side.
Divine Intervention
Many people hope that divine intervention will step in and save them. I’ve always been more cautious about this approach but I won’t discount it. Indeed, over 25-plus years, I’ve met many people moved by these spirits, sure in their belief that political salvation will intervene from ‘unknown’ quarters.
Reframe
Reframing is a good option. It takes a certain inner strength to ditch all your pre-existing positions and hitch yourself to those points that will win. It’s a tool I’ve used many times with courageous clients (both NGOs and industry). They end up winning, but not for the reasons they want.
Legal
I’ve seen a few times the Council or EP’s legal service has been asked to give their position. That’s swayed the position of the EP or the Council. What was once lost was overnight switched to a win.
You can wait for the law to come into force and launch a legal challenge. It can work. It is expensive, and the odds of success are low. If your lawyer guarantees a “sure thing”, ask that they take the case on a ‘no win- no fee’ basis, with the lawyer picking up any award of costs against you.
Process
Laws and decisions are made according to well-established procedures. The procedures are all written down. They are well known to the people making and passing the laws.
I’ve found that a procedural error can set back the progress of a proposal by years.
It does not win the political argument or deal with the underlying support for the proposal. But it can be an effective intervention and slow things down.
A political consultant needs to be suitably ultra-cautious of the chances of success at this stage.
Political Health Warning: Triage may not work.
If you want to see medical triage at work, this clip from Saving Private Ryan is accurate. It is not pretty.