Recently, someone asked me about the positive influence of an interest on a policy issue I have long experience in. My initial response was that they had none. The person who asked the question seemed surprised. I double-checked. The people in charge of the file in the Commission and EP had no record of the interest having any positive influence on the dossier. Looking through the legislative record, I saw an event from a marginal political group with the interest, and an amendment that failed at the Committee stage. Sure, they were known, and active, but their ideas had not been taken up in EU policy and law in the last 10 years.
A Long Journey
If you want to influence EU public policy, you need to realise the journey is a long one.
It is so long that most people and organisations pass by the wayside early on.
The challenge is that even if the windows of opportunity to influence direction are well indicated in advance most don’t know about them, or ignore them and step in late.
I’ve written before about the 109 steps involved from taking an idea through the policy cycle to being adopted into law.
Windows of Opportunity
If you wanted to influence a Commission proposal, the windows of opportunity are clear.
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European Council’s Road Map
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Commission’s Political Priorities
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Commission’s Work Programme
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Road Maps drafted and published
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Work on Impact Assessment and proposal
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RSB
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Inter-Service Consultation
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College adoption
Most ignore 1, 2 and 3. A few look to persuade on 4.
The easiest way to influence the proposal is on 5. You need to bring forward a shadow impact assessment. That needs to follow the Commission’s own guidelines, and ideally, be prepared by the handful of experts the Commission rely on. You can’t change the results of the shadow impact assessment.
If you have woken up late in the day, and you want to influence 7 and 8, the most effective way is to get the Prime Minister’s offices to go into bat for you. If you can’t do that, you are going to have to start early and create a groundswell of public opinion in several member states so that Commissioners and their Heads of Cabinet take notice. It is not easy to do, but it can be done.
Timing Changes on Regulatory Issues
For regulatory decisions and measures, the journey is even longer. Each regulatory process has its own journey. It helps to identify those windows of opportunity so you can do something to influence events.
When I look at any issue, whether fisheries quotas or substance measures, I look to understand the real process and the windows of opportunity. If you ignore that, you have lost before you have started.
For chemical matters, the window of opportunity opens up years before the Commission consider the matter. For example, for classification,the window of opportunity comes about when:
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When new credible science is published on the issue
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When IARC opinion on the matter
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When the substance appears in the mainstream media that leads people to dig deeper
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When a Member State perform a substance evaluation
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When a Member State submits a classification/re-classification
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When the RAC provides their opinion
After the RAC has given their opinion, what happens next is more or less predetermined – for most cases.
If you don’t step in during those windows of opportunity, your chances to influence the final direction are at best limited.