Summary
I have just finished Cass Sunstein’s short book – just 100 pages – “On Rumours”.
Sunstein is a prolific author. He is former Professor of Chicago in law and political science. He is close to President Obahama. He’s now at Harvard Law School. But, unlike many academics, his writing is penetrating and easy to read.
The book’s by-line is “How falsehoods spread, Why we believe them, What can be done’.
Why Do Rumours Work
This is important. This is not a book about whether or why so many people, including me, believed that Suddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and was ready to use them. It is about how the media and now days more the internet can put a rumour out in the “public market place” and see it often quickly be adopted as “fact” and “real” by many people.
The Daily Mail Trick
The Daily Mail seems to specialize on a drop diet of rumours and inneudo. They peddle a mix of shocking stories and semi naked long distqnce photo shots. They target products, chemicals and anything new to be “banned.” Often you get the feeling that they are waiting for the evidence to catch up with their view of the world.
In his own words, Sunstein puts it:
“This book has two goals. The first is to answer these questions:
- Why do ordinary human beings accept rumours, even, destructive, bizarre ones?
- Why do some groups, and even nations, accept rumours that other groups and nations deemed preposterous?
The second is to answer this question:
- What can we do to protect ourselves against the harmful affects.
As we shall see, the answer lies in recognizing that “chilling effect” on those who would spread destructive falsehoods can be an excellent idea. (Pages 4-5).
We Are All Leemings – Or At Least Most Of Us
There is a popular view that experts, in particular scientists, ignore rumours and stick to the evidence. They are unimpeachable. The know the “facts” and can not only show “correlation” between events, but often “causation” between often unlinked events. There seems little evidence to support that view. Sunstein points out that “cascades are common, even amongst experts.”
He refers to “In an article in the New England Journal of Medicine explores “bandwagon diseases,” in which doctors act like “lemmings, episodically and with blind weekly and with a blind infectious enthusiasm pushing certain diseases and treatments primarily because everyone else is doing the same”. There can be serious goes on to state these can be serious consequences in the real world (see page 23).
He goes on “Most doctors are not at the cutting edge of research; their invetiable reliance upon what colleagues have done and are doing leads to numerous surgical fads and treatment caused-illnesses.” (Page 23).
Self-Fulfling Prophecies
And, it seems the marketers have caught on to these ideas.
Being popular helps make something more popular. Marketing firms help products sales on amazon by creating great reviews and client satisfaction.
The music industry has been at this for a long time. It helps explains why the dross of boys bands grow so quickly and then fade away. The appearance of popularity is “a self fulfilling prophecy” at least in the short term.
Why Do Some Rumours Get Accepted
The most interesting discussion in the book is about how people can push rumours, even appaling and wrong ones, and have those rumours accepted by many people.
He explains it so:
“The very variable success of rumours provides a real world how the concept analogy to the concept so popular in science-fiction novels of parallel world even well without self-conscious efforts of manipulation, certain rumours will become entrenched in some places and have no success and others. If propagators are clever, they will attempt to convince people that others have come to believe the rumours they are creating spreading. One propagator will have terrific success in some worlds but none talk with others; another propagator will show radically different pattern of success and failure.”
Group Self Confirmation
Companies and politicians are often under attack. He offers some useful advice:
“Recall the people holding similar beliefs are especially likely to accept some rumours and discount others. Suppose that one group insert say Utah around have been subject to a rumour driven cascade, while others in another groups in New York Canada has not. As soon, those in different worlds will develop strong prior beliefs which they will accept whatever they hear later leaves that may make if a company tries hard to accept, point which I will return (page 28).”
He goes on to explain that explain that likeminded people display, often very quickly, a “group think” in their positions.
Polarised Groups
Sunstein goes on to consider group discussions. He writes “ What is the effect of discussion? The results were simple and almost every group, members ended up holding more extreme positions after they spoke with one another. Most of the liberal liberals in Boulder private and international treaty to control global warming for discussion; a favourite more strongly after discussion many of the Conservatives in Colorado Springs was somewhat sceptical about the trick for discussion; they strongly opposed it after discussion. Aside from increasing extremism, the experiment has an independent effect: it made both liberal groups and conservative groups significantly more homogenous-and thus squelches this diversity. Before the member started to talk, both the red and blue group displayed a fair bit of internal disagreement. Disagreements were reduced as a result of a mere 15 minute discussion.”
Campaigns Work Like This
I think this is important. From my campaign experience in NGOs, a group of people with very similar views, meet to decide on an action. Often, just as the meeting is about to start, someone throws in “some news”, a rumour if you like. This often takes the form of something “wrong” your perceived opponents are doing.
Now, this news if it were intelligence can be helpful. It helps corroborate positions and adjust actions. Often it acts as a smokescreen for impassioned debate and pushing the people to take more tough or extreme positions.
Of course, often the simple act of “checking the rumour” is never taken. Important decisions are taken after impassioned debate.