On 11 December 2019, the new European Commission published their Green Deal. What seems to escape people, is that only a few days later, the new Commission and Fisheries Ministers ignored the Green Deal.
And, to make matters worse, in a few months, it looks like the new ‘Green Deal’ Commission will be shackled by a proposal of their predecessors, and sign up to a fishing ministers corporate welfare binge of new subsidies under the EMFF.
Either, someone is asleep at the wheel or they are choosing to ignore the new Commission’s mantras.
Fishing – Europe’s Failure
What is sure is that fisheries ministers have not read the Green Deal memo.
Politicians everywhere feel able to defy the laws of nature. European Fisheries Ministers have a tragic track record of ignoring the scientific advice that they asked for and setting fishing limits above what the fishing stocks can manage.
When the stocks collapse, they bail out the industry with taxpayers’ cash. Only nature and taxpayers lose out.
At the end of 2019, things were no different for the iconic cod species. In the North Sea and Baltic Sea cod has gone through times of plenty, collapse, recovery and collapse.
Fishing Ministers and officials who manage the stocks go through fits of over-optimism and forget that they are not able to defy the laws of nature. They are so myopic that they think this sorry record is a picture of success.
North Sea Cod
Western Baltic Sea Cod
Eastern Baltic Sea Cod
Despite a terrible track of management, caused by ignoring scientific advice and not enforcing the rules they sign up to, fishing ministers have not learned.
In 2019, fishing ministers and officials again choose to repeat their mistakes and take passing regard to the advice on how many fish could be caught.
|
Name
|
ICES Advice
Catches corresp.
to advice (tonnes)
|
Commission Proposal
|
Council Agreement 2020
|
Council Variation from Commission Proposal
|
Variation from Scientific advice
|
|
Eastern cod
|
0
|
2 000 (by-catch only)
|
2 000
(by-catch only)
|
0
|
2000%
|
|
Western cod
|
3065
|
3 065
|
3 806
|
24%
|
|
|
North Sea cod (North Sea*, English channel, Skagerrat).
|
13,686
|
17,679
|
17,679
|
0
|
29%
|
* Set under EU-Norway Agreement
A deeper look shows a mixed and variable picture.
|
Name
|
ICES Advice
Catches corresp.
to advice (tonnes)
|
Commission Proposal
|
Council Agreement 2020
|
Council Variation from Commission Proposal %
|
Variation from Scientific advice
|
|
Eastern cod
|
0
|
2 000 (by-catch only)
|
2 000
(by-catch only)
|
0
|
2000
|
|
Western cod
|
3065
|
3 065
|
3 806
|
24
|
24
|
|
North Sea cod (North Sea*, English channel, Skagerrat)
|
13,686
|
17,679
|
17,679
|
0
|
29
|
|
1506
|
1 506
|
1 506
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
Anchovy
Bay of Biscay
|
31 892
|
31 892
|
31 892
|
0
|
0
|
|
Herring
|
8064
|
8 064
|
8 064
|
0
|
0
|
|
Haddock
Irish Sea
|
3156
|
3 156
|
3 156
|
0
|
0
|
|
400
|
1 660
|
1 295
|
-22
|
323
|
|
|
2 276
|
7 298
|
12 163
|
40
|
81
|
It’s not made easy to check. The fisheries areas ICES give advice for and the Council reports on the TAC agreed are not always the same.
As the Commission must be using the ICES for the basis of their quota proposals and fishing ministers must use it as a reference, it is strange why they don’t publish them. Perhaps someone will stick in an FoI request for all the documents used during the talks to get hold of the table.
One can only imagine if Von Der Leyen’s ambitious climate agenda is watered down by 25%. or more. The Green Deal will be neutered from the start.
What happens if we follow the evidence?
It would be useful to know what happens to fish stocks that are managed in line with scientific advice.
The numbers have been crunched and the answer, whilst obvious, is useful to read
“Scientifically managed and assessed fish stocks in many places are increasing, or are already at or above the levels that will provide a sustainable long-term catch.”
Source: Effective fisheries management instrumental in improving fish stock status. Hilborn et al (link)
Even politicians can’t avoid the evidence forever. Climate change is already leading to fish stocks to migrate northwards into colder waters. Mackerel are migrating out of Scottish waters to Iceland. Cod is moving up northwards.
Fishing quotas based on historic fishing patterns will soon change in a major way. The chance to (over) fish in your own waters will end. The fish are migrating out.
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I suppose it remains the same old problem of too many boats chasing too few fish. Especially if those that are left are escaping north for colder waters.
Perhaps Ursula and her colleagues will consider extending the Transition Fund to scrap fishing boats and find new livelihoods for fishing communities?