How to sober up quickly – do you have the votes you need?

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The first thing I do when I work on a new issue is to see how previous votes on similar issues have gone.

It’s a basic response. It helps identify from the start the chances of success and what countries/Parties are likely to support you. It gives you a sober assessment from the start. Do you have enough votes to get what you want? After all, wild-eyed enthusiasm won’t get you the votes you need.

Some people may skip it because the results may leave an unpleasant taste in their mouth. What they want is unlikely in the realms of political reality.

As I don’t believe in political pixxy dust, I’d recommend a more sober process.

There are three ways to get a sober assessment.

  1. Commission EUMatrix.  For a very reasonable charge, their experts will crunch the numbers, and give you an unnervingly accurate assessment of a likely outcome.
  2. Use the excellent search functionity of EUMatrix
  3. Go through the vote results in the EP, and Committee and Plenary, the Council, and the Comitology Committees (good for implementing acts and RPS measures). The results are all there. It just takes time.

 

I keep a record of the votes on the areas I follow for the EP, Council, and Comitology Committees. It is limited to chemicals and eco-design, and less fish these days.

The voting patterns over the last 10 years has been consistent. Countries and Political Parties voting habits on issues are stable.

There are of course abberations to these voting results. But, the exception (the 2%), does not make the rule.

So when people let youthful enthuasism take control, I’ll caution them to look at how that issue has been voted on over the last 5 years.

It’s also useful to check how governments and MEPs have voted in the past. It gives you a good indiciation of how they’ll vote in the future.

Where can you find the vote results

EP Plenary – link

EP Committee – each COmmittee has a link to votes – see here for Environment Committee

Council – link 

Comitology Committees – go the Committee’s site and follow the voting record – here is an example for REACH link