Before a legislative proposal goes to the vote, the outcome is known to those who need to know.
In the EP most of the work is done in technical meetings, and the Rapporteur/Shadows sign off any pre-decided agreements.
Only a few disputed issues go to vote in committee, and the plenary endorses agreements.
As for the few contentious issues, compromise agreements are sought out. Votes are only held when the majorities at the Committee level are unclear.
Of course, there are exceptions to the general rule. They are reserved for a few genuinely politically sensitive issues or when political groups renege on agreements.
In the Council, the Working Group will prepare the lay of the land, and broad positions become clear soon enough. Coreper will sign off with some adjustments, and Ministers endorse soon after.
In reality, most EU files are technical, and whilst you may labelling requirements on whips and rubber equipment is vitally important, for 99.9% of MEPs and officials, it is a technical matter.
The biggest challenge is that you’ll usually ask people who support you on how things are going. This is not the best. They tend to give you positive news. And, if your allies are not mainstream voices or not key players on the file, they’ll have no real idea of where the votes will land. If you believe the likes of former Roger Helmer MEP, you’ll be in for shock when political reality comes knocking on your door.
This means you can find out the likely outcome of a vote in Committee and Plenary, and in Council, weeks/months before it happens.
The easiest way to find out is to speak to the Political Group Advisers and the Committee Secretariat. They’ll give you a sober assessment of the political lay of the land. For the Council, triangulating with at least three attaches will give you a realistic assessment. Best of all, speak to the Commission’s negotiating team. They’ll have a deeper insight than anyone.
Looking at previous votes on similar issues gives you are good indication straight off. Politicians won’t change their minds on the same/similar issue without good reason.
If you do this, you’ll eliminate a lot of nervous energy and excitement. When the votes come in, all you’ll do is see if you are 1% or 2% off.