A lot of people are going to have a shock on 11 February 2025 when the Commission publish their 2025 Work Programme. Some people are going to be surprised to see that their issue is going to legislated on, often in a way that they don’t want.
Over 27 years, I don’t know a single legislative proposal that came out of the blue.
When I’ve looked at the preceding policy debate, studies, scientific debate, political debate, Member State action, and the Commission’s sign posting of what they are likely to do, the signs are clear.
A Tracker Checklist
Here is my checklist of sign posts for legislative action
- Studies
- Issue coming up in Political Debate, e.g. Parliamentary Questions, debates
- Issue keeps coming up in the political media
- Mentioned in the Political Guidelines
- Mentioned in the Mission Letters
- Comes up in the Confirmation Hearings
- Mentioned in grounding Communications, e.g. Green Deal Communication
- Flagged for action in any Evaluations
- Flagged in Inception Impact Assessment
- Raised during the Feedback to the Inception Impact Assessment and Public Consultation
- Mentioned in the Public Consultation
- Flagged for action in the European Commission’s Annual Work Programme
- File mentioned for adoption in the Upcoming Items for the College
The two most important moments in the adoption of a legislative proposal – validation of the entry in the planning system and the launch of inter-service consultation – are not public.
All You Need To Do
If the first time you wake up and see you are caught on is the day the proposal is adopted, you are way too late. You won’t have time to prepare the evidence to support your position. You’ll be playing catch up.
You need to do is track the scientific, policy and political debate. The earlier you turn up to influence the process the better.
You need to have the evidence – data, scientific, and public policy – on hand to respond to concerns and questions. Without accurate and relevant evidence you are neutered.
For any interest of any size, a regular check in with the Commission DGs whose work may impact you every 6 months is not easy enough. A call with the desk officer and a meeting with the Director or Head of Unit.
If you are serious, you’ll engage with the Cabinet leads on the issue. When the file is flagged for validation or inter-service consultation, you’ll be asked for your views.
If you want to sit in internal meetings, listen to an inner monologue that nothing is happening, and ignore reality, it is likely that when the proposal lands, you are going to be ignored and swept away by the legislative tide.