If you want to change public policy or decisions the odds are stacked against you.
Your chances increase if you start early in the process. The best start at the ideation phase. Most people step in late, usually at 2 minutes to midnight or more often, 2 minutes after midnight.
If you are serious about changing public policy or decisions, you need to be thinking in the 5 to 10-year time range. Very few people can even contemplate that sort of commitment to an issue.
Trying to change public policy, legislation or decision is a bit like playing chess blindfolded, whilst taking part in 10 games at the same time. The chances that you are a grandmaster are at best slim.
What surprises me is the depressing regularity a lobbyist turns up and offers the sure thing.
I am never sure if they are plain naive, snake oil salesman, or some self-help evangelist.
If anyone offers you a sure thing, you should walk away.
If you want to be nice about it, just ask your lobbyist to be to give you the phone number of someone who followed their advice and walked out the other side.
The idea that there is a guarantee to ensure a public policy decision goes your way is appealing.
Even a strong case, the odds are no more than 60% that you’ll get what you want. And, most cases are never than clear cut.
The odds of success are not those you’d get in Russian Roulette – an 83% survival rate – and on a good day no more than 50/50 – a little more than you’d get playing at the roulette table.
A lot of people like to hear a message of hope when the cold evidence does not support that diagnosis.
Sure Things
You can learn a lot from Hollywood and the work of John Cusack.
“No questions asked, no strings attached, no guilt attached.” The Sure Thing
If you encounter a sure thing the odds are slim that you’ll roll out of bed with an exotic disease and an empty wallet.
The odds dictate that sometimes you will hit lucky, like a royal flush in poker, and you’ll get what you want.
So, think twice before you take a lobbyist up on their offer of a sure thing. The least you are going to lose is the contents of your wallet.