Reading Peter Ludlow’s European Council Briefing Notes provides a valuable insight into the deliberations of the Heads of State and Government.
Today, on the key issues, it is the Heads of State and Government, who decide the direction and the endpoint.
On Climate Change, European leaders have firmly taken control. Just a few years ago, European Leaders would generously spend 10 minutes at a Summit, agreeing to climate change measures. Today, they spend two and a half hours deliberating.
Re-reading Eurocommen briefings for 2019, it is clear that European leaders have come on board to back the Commission’s 2050 carbon neutrality goals.
What is interesting is that in March only three countries supported the Commission and today twenty-five do so.
The fast change of support deserves review:
1. Before the Spring European Council 26-27 March, only three countries, France, Sweden and Netherlands backed the Commission.
2. At the meeting, eight Member States France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, Finland, Sweden, and Denmark supported the target.
3. When European leaders met on 18-19 June, twenty-four Member States backed the Commission.
Only four governments – Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Hungary – or 12% of the EU population held out.
4. On 3rd October, Estonia jumped ship and backed the 2050 carbon neutral target.
5. Importantly, the position of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungry comes down to “We share your objectives, we just don’t like your timing.”. They don’t oppose. The question is the degree of support they may receive. Hungary is likely the next to jump. The impregnable Visegrad walls have fallen.
When European leaders meet again, 12-13 December, it is likely that 28 will come on board.
One of the first proposals of the next Commission on carbon neutrality by 2050 should be adopted quickly.