Hanlon’s Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”
Using this tool is s an excellent way to a way to eliminate unlikely explanations for human behaviour.
I think it is one of the most useful tools for a good lobbyist.
Over twenty plus years, stupidity is usually the best and most likely explanation for why a decision or vote went the wrong way.
What about Conspiracies
I’ve become very circumspect about conspiracies.
I don’t deny that malevolent forces may not be working in the background. It’s just it is highly unlikely it’s going to be the case.
When I worked on Blue Fin Tuna CITES listing it became clear that criminal elements with close political connections played an important role in more than one EU Member State. In that case, the confirmation of the role ‘malicious’ forces came from the most serious and multiple government sources. When they told you to up your team’s security, you took it seriously.
Why use it
This model helps you develop more effective options for remedying bad situations.
In political campaigning and lobbying, you tend to lose for simple reasons. You don’t have enough votes to win. It’s that simple.
The reasons why you don’t have the support for the votes are often simple. Elaborate reasons for defeat are dreamt up in a bid to hide uncomfortable truths.
Use this tool when you see
Some common stupidities include:
- You turn up late in the day and start lobbying after the decision has been decided
- You decide, by accident or neglect, not to turn up at all
- You do not bother speaking to the people who make or influence the decision.
- You make your case on the very one ground that the law does not allow to be raised
- You choose not to provide any supporting evidence to help the people making the decision support you
- You base your work on the incorrect procedure.
- You ignore the people who make the decision.
- You deal with people you like, whose influence is at best marginal influence.
- Your engagement offends the very people whose support you need.
- You speak to your allies and have no idea that you need an actual majority (however small it is) to win.
- You act offended when people don’t agree with you
The advantage of using Hanlon’s Razor is that look for plausible reasons for why things went the way they did. It’s an excellent tool to banish paranoia and ideology. There are more than enough paranoid ideologues anyway.