How do legislators make their decisions

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A lobbyist’s job is to understand how legislators make their decisions. You want to know what makes them vote the way they do.
If you are serious about your craft, you’ll read John W Kingdon’s work. For decades he has been the pre-eminent academic who gets how policy making, agenda setting and votes happen.
In ‘Congressmen’s Voting Decisions’ he looks at congressmen make their decisions when voting on the floor of the United States House of Representatives. The study was prepared by interviews with congressmen and they are anonumity. Whilst the book is dated – 1973 – it asks a core question ‘how do legislators make their decisions’.  It is rare in the literature. He is academic who spoke with the legislators.
The book made a lot of sense to me. I’ve worked for politicians and MEPs. It reminded me of my time working for MEPs passing legislation.
No politician is an expert on every issue they vote on. They don’t have the time to look into every matter they are being asked to vote on. So, they need to find out ways to make up their mind.
What’s influences how Congressmen Vote
Kingdon looked at the influence of:
  1. Constituency
  2. Fellow congressmen
  3. Specialist knowledge of fellow congressmen
  4. Party leadership
  5. Committee leadership
  6. Interest groups
  7. Government administration
  8. Congressional staff
  9. Press
  10. Media  TV and Radio
What’s most influential
The study find that the most important are:
1st. Constituency
2nd. Fellow congressmen
3rd. Administration
4th Interest groups
5th. Staff
6th. Party leadership
7th. Reading
8th. Media
A deeper dive
This list more or less adds up to me.
I realise a lot of people will disagree. A lot of people have skin in the game to show that they can influence politicians to vote in the way they want them to.
1. Your constituency
I agree that “the constituency is the only actor in the political system to which the the congressman is ultimately accountable. They have the real negative sanction”.
For European Elections, your place on the party list is the key factor that will decide whether you are elected. That power sits in the hand of the Party machine back home. So, at various moments, a small group of political officials on a Party’s national selection panel are all important. In europe, the selection and order in the Party list is the key moment.
The constituent pressure is most powerful if it comes from elite interests. They know how to act to move an issue so politicians act. You are often looking to engineer perceived public constituency interest, than any real mass outburst of public interest.
2. Your colleagues
Fellow Congressmen are key. They give cues for voting and direct yes-no advice on how to vote. The main factors here:
  1. You vote with those who you agree with
  2. Your vote for those who are credible. Credibility is determined by those who are: well prepared, careful of the facts, and responsible.
  3. The personal qualities of the key influencer legislator include: approachability, likability, political astuteness, and trust not to con you or pull a deal
  4. If the legislator makes fellow legislators feel uncomfortable or ‘ they hang with the wrong crowd’, people will just oppose him.
  5. Expertise. Members considered the experts in the lead Committee are valued. They’re the ones who give condensed and easily understandable information. The Committee system extolls the virtues of specialisation. Other congressman follow the committee because they feel assured of getting expert advice. To be fair, if the Committee does not back your amendment, you need to consider dropping it.
  6. State Delegation. You’ll sometimes back the Member State line. The country’s interests can override a weak pan-European Party interest.
  7. Seniority. The more experienced political is often looked to for the nod on how to vote.

 

This is helpful to realise. Some MEPs and countries support will only guarantee defeat for your amendment.

3. Interest Groups
Interest groups have a mixed influence. They appear to have a greater influence on Committee votes, than the vote of the full Parliament. Legislators consider them quote important, but do not follow their wishes when voting.
Their influence is greatest when interest groups work through the constituency.
4. Press
What was unsurprisingly is that the press rarely appeared to be of major importance in deciding voting decisions. The press do have a greater influence in framing the public policy agenda. But, deciding how legislators will vote is a weak link.
5. Social Media
The book does not look at social media. My gut feeling is that social media has far less direct influence on voting decisions than many consultants suggest . Social media is an excellent tool for constituency activation. It is a good as an ‘echo chamber’ for allies and serve as a means to mobilise interests, but little more.
Who will update this study?
Personally, I don’t think a lot of the Kingdon’s core findings would change if  the study were repeated today in Brussels. But, tt is would be useful exercise for a PhD student.