A rule of thumb for discussions on risk

If you are involved in communicating about risk, you need to have read the writing of Dan Gardner and Cass Sunstein. I don’t mean flick through. I mean ‘read’ in the way Mortimer Adler suggested. A Simple Rule of Thumb Unsurprisingly for a chemical lobbyist, I discuss issues around risk and cost-benefit analysis a lot. To … Read more

Having Your Own Canary in the Legislative Mine

On Friday I gave a talk to the Public Affairs Council. I was asked how far in advance I could tell if a legislative or regulatory proposal would come. I answered ’10 years out’.  Maybe this sounds like an incredulous mystic, so I thought it would be useful to test out this ‘gut feeling’.  This … Read more

Kissinger

I just finished  Niall Ferguson’s “Kissinger: 1923-1968: The Idealist.” I bought this 882 page authorised biography for two reasons. First, I enjoy Professor Niall Ferguson’s writing. He is a rare academic who can write well. Second, I wanted to gain an insight into how the US government landed up in the Vietnam war. The book is not … Read more